The Chinese steel industry is aiming to sharply reduce CO2 emissions from the iron and steel industry by 2060, Su Changyong, deputy secretary general at the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), said at the IREPAS conference April 28 in Athens, Greece.

“By 2040, we try to cut CO2 production emission by 40%, by 2050, we [aim to] cut CO2 emission by 85% and by 2060, we [aim to] cut CO2 emission by 95%,” Changyong said.

The Chinese steel industry is aiming to achieve this by energy efficiency improvements, more recycling, breakthrough technologies and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), he added.

“We feel that a production decrease will contribute to a 41% [carbon emissions decrease] until 2060, which means by 2060 there’s a very positive forecast that Chinese steel production will be around 800 million mt,” Changyong said. “Many people believe it will be lower, which will make the biggest contribution. In the meantime, China mills will also use much, much more scrap than today. Also with this fuel mix, we have much more renewable energy instead of coke,” Changyong added.

Market participants at the IREPAS conference were skeptical of such a sharp production decrease in the Chinese steel industry over the coming years, sources said.

China’s 2024 crude steel production volumes were 1.005 billion mt, compared with 1.028 billion mt in 2023, according to World Steel data, having steadily dropped from a peak of 1.065 billion mt in 2020.

China’s crude steel production is forecast to drop to 968 million mt in 2025, due to constraints on Chinese steel exports and muted domestic demand, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights’ updated forecast in April 2025.

Changyong suggested that further weakness is expected in the domestic Chinese construction sector, with square meters expected to be built within the Chinese domestic market “no more than 700 million sqm in 2025”, down from 739 million sqm in 2024.

China exported 544,428 mt of finished steel to Turkey over Jan-Feb 2025, after exporting 3.812 million mt of finished steel to Turkey over 2024, according to Commodity Insights data.

China exported 98.74 million mt of finished steel globally in 2024, up sharply from 86.48 million mt in 2023, according to Commodity Insights data.

High Chinese steel export volumes over 2024 have put downward pricing pressure on regional steel markets, including for Turkey and the wider EMEA market.